{"id":4425,"date":"2023-12-09T05:15:52","date_gmt":"2023-12-08T21:15:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/i88go.net\/?p=4425"},"modified":"2023-12-09T05:15:53","modified_gmt":"2023-12-08T21:15:53","slug":"%e7%99%be%e5%ae%b6%e6%a8%82%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%ef%bc%8c%e8%b3%ad%e5%8d%9a%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%b8%e8%ae%93%e4%bd%a0%e6%88%90%e7%82%ba%e7%99%be%e5%ae%b6%e6%a8%82%e7%89%8c%e8%b7%af%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/i88go.net\/?p=4425","title":{"rendered":"\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u8ced\u535a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u8b93\u4f60\u6210\u70ba\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u724c\u8def\u5206\u6790\u5e2b(\u4e0b)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u5728\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u5f88\u5e38\u770b\u5230\u5404\u7a2e\u6559\u73a9\u5bb6\u770b\u724c\u8def\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5149\u662f\u4e86\u89e3\u300c\u770b\u8def\u300d\u7684\u653b\u7565\u9084\u4e0d\u5920\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u73a9\u5bb6\u559c\u6b61\u89c0\u5bdf\u300c\u724c\u8def\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u6839\u64da\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u904a\u6232\u7d50\u679c\u505a\u51fa\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u7d20\u8cea\u8207\u5c0d\u5fc3\u7406\u9677\u9631\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u300c\u6709\u770b\u8def\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u6c92\u8d70\u8def\u5fc3\u5883\u3002\u300d<\/strong>\u7684\u7a98\u5883\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u95dc\u89c0\u5bdf\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u724c\u8def\uff0c\u4e26\u505a\u51fa\u9069\u7576\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6d1e\u5bdf\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \u770b\u6e05\u724c\u5c40\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u6c7a\u7b56\u504f\u5dee\uff1a\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u5e36\u7d66\u4f60\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u9677\u9631<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    \u6c7a\u7b56\u504f\u5dee\u662f\u8ced\u535a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6982\u5ff5<\/strong>\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5728\u6c7a\u7b56\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u8aa4\u5dee\u548c\u504f\u898b\uff0c\u5728\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4e2d\uff0c\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u724c\u8def\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u800c\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff08The Gambler\u2019s Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\u5373\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4f7f\u73a9\u5bb6\u8aa4\u4ee5\u70ba\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u904a\u6232\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u767c\u751f\u592a\u591a\u6b21\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5c07\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f<\/strong>\uff0c\u6700\u5178\u578b\u7684\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u300c\u5df2\u7d93\u8f38\u597d\u5e7e\u628a\u4e86\uff0c\u518d\u904e\u5e7e\u6b21\u5c31\u80fd\u8cfa\u56de\u4f86\u300d\u3001\u300c\u5df2\u7d93\u958b\u5c0f\u597d\u5e7e\u6b21\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u958b\u5927\u3002\u300d\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u7acb\u5373\u653e\u624b\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u592a\u5927\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u53ea\u53ef\u60dc\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u8b93\u4eba\u7684\u5fc3\u88e1\u6c92\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u5bb9\u6613\u653e\u624b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5c0d\u6297\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u9019\u6b21\u53c8\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u56de\u5408\u300d\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u907f\u514d\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u990a\u6210\u8aaa\u300c\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u300d\u7684\u7fd2\u6163\u3002<\/strong>\u6bcf\u4e00\u56de\u5408\u9593\u90fd\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u7368\u7acb\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u5fc5\u9808\u62cb\u6389\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u91cd\u65b0\u601d\u8003\u8207\u4f48\u7f72\u3001\u89c0\u5bdf\u724c\u8def\u6642\u4e0d\u88ab\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u300c\u5f97\u5230\u300d\u6216\u300c\u5931\u53bb\u300d\u7684\u904a\u6232\u7d50\u679c\u6c96\u660f\u982d\uff0c\u6642\u523b\u63d0\u9192\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u624d\u6703\u8b93\u81ea\u5df1\u6210\u70ba\u4e0d\u88ab\u8b2c\u8aa4\u652f\u914d\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2. \u5c0d\u6297\u8a98\u60d1\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c0\u8a55\u4f30\u7c4c\u78bc\uff1a\u8ced\u8cc7\u6548\u61c9\u5bb9\u6613\u8b93\u4f60\u8840\u672c\u7121\u6b78<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u8ced\u8cc7\u6548\u61c9(House Money Effect)<\/strong>\u5247\u662f\u91dd\u5c0d\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5fc3\u614b\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5fc3\u4e2d\u90fd\u6709\u5fc3\u7406\u5e33\u6236\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u88ab\u5206\u5728\u300c\u8f9b\u82e6\u8cfa\u9322\u5e33\u6236\u300d\u88e1\u7684\u9322\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u6bd4\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u4e00\u53e3\u6c23\u82b1\u6389\u300c\u5e78\u904b\u5f97\u5230\u5e33\u6236\u300d\u88e1\u7684\u9322\uff0c\u4f46\u90fd\u4e00\u6a23\u662f\u540c\u7b49\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u91d1\u9322\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u61c9\u8a72\u4e00\u8996\u540c\u4ec1\u505a\u898f\u5283\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"image\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u8ced\u8cc7\u6548\u61c9\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u662f\u4f86\u81ea\u65bc\u8ced\u5834(House)\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4eba\u5011\u5e38\u5e38\u6703\u628a\u8ced\u535a\u8cfa\u4f86\u7684\u9322\u5927\u81bd\u82b1\u6389\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u6709\u9019\u7a2e\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u73a9\u5bb6\u5f97\u6709\u81ea\u77e5\u4e4b\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u8ced\u535a\u9019\u500b\u5834\u57df\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u73a9\u5bb6\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u53cd\u6b63\u662f\u5929\u4e0a\u6389\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u9322\uff0c\u8667\u4e86\u4e5f\u6c92\u95dc\u4fc2\u300d\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u5728\u4e0b\u6ce8\u7b56\u7565\u4e0a\u5076\u6709\u66b4\u885d\uff0c\u800c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u9019\u5e7e\u6b21\u7684\u7206\u885d\u4e2d\uff0c\u8f38\u5149\u4e86\u4f60\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u616e\u3001\u8b39\u5c0f\u614e\u5fae\u7684\u7372\u5229\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u4ee5\u4e0a\u5169\u500b\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4efb\u7531\u5b83\u5728\u8166\u888b\u99b3\u9a01\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u6703\u662f\u300c\u5e78\u904b\u5f97\u4f86\u7684\u53cd\u6b63\u6709\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u5927\u81bd\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5427\uff01\u300d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u300c\u8667\u4e45\u4e86\u4e0b\u6b21\u4e00\u5b9a\u63db\u6211\u8cfa\u56de\u4f86\u3002\u300d\uff0c\u6d77\u91cf\u7684\u7c4c\u78bc\u5c07\u4e0d\u65b7\u88ab\u76f2\u76ee\u6295\u5165\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u52dd\u5229\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u9444\u6210\u5931\u53bb\u4e00\u5207\u7684\u6295\u6a5f\u60b2\u5287\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\uff0c\u6295\u6ce8\u7b56\u7565\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u5be6\u52d9\u61c9\u7528<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    \u7d50\u5408\u7c21\u55ae\u539f\u5247\u8207\u524d\u9762\u5c0d\u5e36\u7c4c\u78bc\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a1\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u50c5\u7c21\u55ae\u597d\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u7d93\u904e\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9a57\u8b49\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u8a02\u5b9a\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a2d\u7acb\u4e00\u689d\u754c\u7dda\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u7c4c\u78bc\u6feb\u7528\u8207\u5fc3\u7406\u9677\u9631\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u767c\u751f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. 1324\u6295\u6ce8\u7b56\u7565\uff1a<\/strong>\u6309\u6b21\u5e8f\u5faa\u74b0\u6295\u6ce8\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce8\u5982\u679c\u662f100\uff0c\u5247\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5230\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u6309\u7167\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u76843\u500d\u30012\u500d\u30014\u500d\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u70ba300\u3001200\u3001400\uff0c\u9019\u80fd\u70ba\u6f5b\u5728\u640d\u5931\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u4e5f\u8f03\u80fd\u5ef6\u9577\u9810\u7b97\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u770b\u5230\u5229\u6f64\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. \u55ae\u908a\u6295\u6ce8\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a<\/strong>\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u6ce8\u65bc\u838a\u5bb6\u6216\u9592\u5bb6\uff0c\u9023\u8f38\u4e09\u5834\u6642\u5373\u505c\u6b62\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u65b9\u958b\u59cb\u7372\u52dd\u518d\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u6ce8\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. 124\u500d\u6578\u6295\u6ce8\uff1a<\/strong>\u6bcf\u6b21\u7372\u52dd\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u6ce8\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce8\u5982\u679c\u662f100\uff0c\u5247\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u70ba200\u3001\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u70ba400\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u985e\u63a8\uff0c\u7372\u52dd\u4e09\u6b21\u5f8c\u91cd\u8fd4\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce8\u7684\u6578\u984d\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u65bc\u9019\u7a2e\u6295\u6ce8\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6703\u4f7f\u4e0b\u6ce8\u984d\u5ea6\u500d\u6578\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u50c5\u63a8\u85a6\u5177\u8f03\u5927\u672c\u91d1\u7684\u73a9\u5bb6\u9032\u884c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      \u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u53d7\u6b61\u8fce\u7684\u8ced\u535a\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u5176\u7d50\u679c\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u767c\u63ee\u8457\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u4e86\u89e3\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u8a2d\u8a08\u539f\u7406\u3001\u907f\u514d\u8ff7\u601d\u548c\u638c\u63e1\u8ced\u535a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5e6b\u52a9\u73a9\u5bb6\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u61c9\u5c0d\u724c\u5c40\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u7372\u52dd\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/strong>\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u518d\u5ea6\u63d0\u9192\u73a9\u5bb6\uff0c\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4ecd\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u535a\u5f08\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u52dd\u5229\u6c38\u9060\u4e0d\u662f\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u53c3\u8207\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u8ced\u535a\u6642\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u7406\u6027\u548c\u8ca0\u8cac\u4efb\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u5fc3\u614b\u4ecd\u662f\u6700\u70ba\u91cd\u8981\u7684<\/strong>\uff0c\u5148\u6709\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5728\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u724c\u684c\u4e0a\u8d70\u5f97\u66f4\u9060\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8f38\u5230\u812b\u8932\u3001\u65e9\u65e9\u56de\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u300c\u89ba\u5bdf\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u61c9\u7528\u535a\u5f08\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\uff0c\u8b93\u6a5f\u6703\u6c38\u9060\u5c0d\u4f60\u6709\u5229\uff01\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u91cb\u7591\u9304\uff0c\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u7b54<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. \u5982\u4f55\u5728\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4e2d\u63d0\u9ad8\u52dd\u7387\uff1f<\/strong>
        \u7b54\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u8a2d\u8a08\u539f\u7406\u8207\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u6982\u5ff5(\u5982\u9810\u671f\u6548\u61c9)\u8207\u907f\u514d\u8ff7\u601d(\u5982\u5fc5\u52dd\/\u7a69\u8d0f\u601d\u7dad)\u4e26\u57f9\u990a\u6b63\u78ba\u5fc3\u614b\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5c07\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u52dd\u7387\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. \u662f\u5426\u6709\u5fc5\u52dd\u7b56\u7565\u6216\u7a69\u8d0f\u6253\u6cd5\uff1f<\/strong>
        \u7b54\uff1a\u7531\u65bc\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6c92\u6709\u7d55\u5c0d\u7684\u5fc5\u52dd\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f46\u51e1\u6a5f\u7387\u5373\u53ef\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u6545\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\u548c\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u63d0\u9ad8\u52dd\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. \u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u5fc3\u7406\u9677\u9631\uff1f<\/strong>
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